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válasz Busterftw #67 üzenetére
kritzálni könnyű
Inkább írd le, hogy szerinted 1 és 2 év múlva hogyan fog állni az AI piac ..
Mekkora részesedése lesz az nVidiának, AMD-nek , Intelnek,És akár gyere a Manifold-ra ( prediction market) , ahol lehet fogadni ..
"Prediction markets let you bet on future events.
The price of an outcome reflects the odds of that outcome, which varies as people buy and sell. Manifold's probabilities are very accurate at forecasting the future!"Például:
"Will a model be trained using at least as much compute as GPT-3 using AMD GPUs before Jan 1 2026?" 72%chance
- februárban még csak 34% volt.
https://manifold.markets/LeoGao/will-a-model-be-trained-using-at-le
"This question resolves yes if it is public knowledge that any ML model is trained using more than 3.14E+23 flops entirely using AMD GPUs (or, hypothetically, other ML accelerators produced by AMD in the future). Resolution is based on announce time; if the model is trained before but only announced later, this resolves NO.If the trained model is substantially worse than such a model should be, then it does not count towards resolution (i.e if a LM is trained and it's only comparable in performance on standard benchmarks to a model trained with 1/10th the compute). This is mostly intended to exclude failed attempts."
"Will Superalignment succeed? (self assessment)" 33%
https://manifold.markets/SG/will-superalignment-succeed"Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before 2030?" 40% chance
https://manifold.markets/cash/will-jensen-huang-cease-to-be-ceo-o-244ce3a37885"Will any chip maker other than NVIDIA, Intel, and AMD create accelerators for Deep Learning and be profitable by 2030?" 81% chance
https://manifold.markets/yk/will-any-chip-maker-other-than-nvid"Will Jensen Huang (CEO of Nvidia) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?"
7% chance
https://manifold.markets/ScroogeMcDuck/will-jensen-huang-ceo-of-nvidia-be"When will Nvidia's GH200 "Grace Hopper" superchip be released."
- 2024H1 60%
- 2024H2 19%
- 2025: 9%
- 2026 : 5%
https://manifold.markets/TobiasH/when-will-nvidias-gh200-grace-hoppe[ Szerkesztve ]
Mottó: "A verseny jó!"
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